<p>Učestale smene veoma vlažnih i izuzetno sušnih perioda mogu prouzrokovati značajne negativne<br />posledice na poljoprivredu, životnu sredinu, ekonomiju i na društvo u celini. Strogi zahtevi<br />poljoprivredne proizvodnje i specifičnosti agroklimatskih uslova i samog područja Vojvodine čine ga<br />veoma vulnerabilnim na pojavu viška ili manjka vode. Jasnije sagledavanje vremenske i prostorne<br />pojave viška i manjka vode i procena rizika od njihove pojave moglo bi dovesti do preduzimanja<br />odgovarajućih mera pripreme i ublažavanja negativnih posledica i pre pojave hazardnog događaja.<br />U ovom radu su kreirane metodologije na osnovu kojih su izvršene procene rizika od suficita i<br />deficita vode na melioracionom području Vojvodine. Procene rizika dobijene su kombinacijom procena<br />ranjivosti i procena hazarda, a baziraju se na identifikaciji ključnih faktora koji utiču na pojavu suficita i<br />deficita vode, na njihovoj analizi i adekvatnom vrednovanju i uz korišćenje geografskog informacionog<br />sistema. Ključni faktori su odabrani na osnovu njihovog uticaja na samu pojavu ili na ublažavanje<br />efekata suše ili pojave viška vode, na osnovu dostupnosti podataka i na osnovu istraživanja brojnih<br />autora. Vrednovanje faktora ranjivosti je izvršeno objektivnom metodom entropije. Analize hazarda su<br />izvršene savremenim hidrometeorološkim stohastičkim metodama koje sveobuhvatno sagledavaju<br />opasnosti od pojave suše ili viška vode. Rezultati procena ranjivosti, hazarda i rizika su dobijene<br />korišćenjem geografskog informacionog sistema u vidu karata.<br />Metodologije na osnovu kojih su u ovom radu sprovedene procene rizika od suficita i deficita vode<br />na melioracionom području Vojvodine, omogućavaju stvaranje uslova za podizanje pripravnosti na<br />pojavu ekstremnih hidrometeoroloških događaja, unapređenje planiranja meliorativnih mera kao i izbor i<br />donošenje optimalnijih odluka vezanih za upravljanje i ulaganje u meliorativne sisteme, a sve u skladu<br />sa načelima i principima održivog razvoja poljoprivrede, vodoprivrede i melioracija.</p> / <p>Frequent changes of very dry and wet periods can cause significant adverse effects on agriculture,<br />environment, economy and the whole society. Strict requirements of agricultural production and special<br />characteristics of agro-climatic conditions of the Vojvodina region makes it very vulnerable to the<br />occurrences of excess water or drought. A clearer understanding of the temporal and spatial occurrence<br />of excess water or droughts and the risk assessment of their occurrence could lead to taking appropriate<br />measures of preparedness and mitigation of negative impacts before the onset of hazardous events.<br />In this dissertation, methodologies of risk assessments of water excess and water deficit on the land<br />reclamation areas in Vojvodina were created. Risk assessments were obtained by a combination of<br />vulnerability assessments and hazard assessments, and they are based on the identification of key factors<br />affecting the occurrence of water excess and water deficit, on their analysis and adequate evaluation and<br />by using geographic information systems. Key factors were selected based on their impact on the<br />occurrence or on mitigation of the effects of drought or excess water, on the basis of data availability<br />and based on the research of numerous authors. Valuation of the vulnerability factors is made by<br />objective method of entropy weighting. Hazard analyses were performed by using contemporary<br />hydrometeorological stochastic methods that comprehensively perceive threats of drought or excess<br />water. Assessments of vulnerability, hazard and risk are preformed in GIS and results are presented in a<br />form of thematic maps.<br />Methodologies for risk assessments of water excess and water deficit in land reclamation areas of<br />Vojvodina region, created or modified in this dissertation, allows the creation of conditions for<br />increasing preparedness to extreme hydro-meteorological events, improvement of land reclamation<br />measures planning as well as improvement of selection and decision-making regarding management and<br />investment in the irrigation and drainage systems, all in accordance with the principles of sustainable<br />agriculture, water management and land reclamation.<br /> </p>
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uns.ac.rs/oai:CRISUNS:(BISIS)85570 |
| Date | 01 July 2014 |
| Creators | Bezdan Atila |
| Contributors | Salvai Atila, Savić Radovan, Kolaković Srđan |
| Publisher | Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Poljoprivredni fakultet u Novom Sadu, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture at Novi Sad |
| Source Sets | University of Novi Sad |
| Language | Serbian |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | PhD thesis |
Page generated in 0.0059 seconds