A stochastic model of the South African Gold mines was constructed using Contingent Claims Analysis. This method allows the modelling of the major sources of uncertainty that the gold mines face, namely, uncertainty surrounding the future gold price, the exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the interest rate. The trajectories of these variables were modelled by stochastic differential equations. By applying the principles of contingent claims analysis, we could obtain a valuation partial differential equation that described the value of the mine contingent on the current values of the state variables mentioned above. This partial differential equation was solved by the Monte Carlo method and the solution was compared to current estimates of the mines' value.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uct/oai:localhost:11427/38813 |
| Date | 21 September 2023 |
| Creators | Beelders, Owen |
| Publisher | Faculty of Commerce, School of Economics |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Master Thesis, Masters, MA |
| Format | application/pdf |
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