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Evaluating bias in models for predicting emergency vehicle busy probabilities

In this thesis we discuss three models that are used to estimate vehicle busy probabilities when call service time depends on call location and the serving vehicle. The first model requires an assumption that each vehicle operates independently of the other vehicles. The second model approximately corrects for the independence assumption. The third model also approximately corrects for the independence assumption, however it assumes that all vehicles have an equal busy probability. We evaluate model bias by comparing the estimates from each model with estimates from a simulation model. We use extremely long runs to ensure that the simulation is both accurate and precise. Our results suggest that the model using the independence assumption performs poorly as the system utilization increases. The correction models, however, perform well over a wide range of system sizes and utilizations. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/291541
Date January 1990
CreatorsBenitez Auza, Ricardo Ariel, 1964-
ContributorsGoldberg, Jeffrey
PublisherThe University of Arizona.
Source SetsUniversity of Arizona
Languageen_US
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext, Thesis-Reproduction (electronic)
RightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.

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