Consumption-based asset pricing models (CCAPMs) connect asset returns with consumption growth. The poor empirical performance of early consumption models has led to the development of a number of more sophisticated models. Nevertheless, most models focus on the US markets, and very few CCAPMs have been examined in the Australian context. Given the importance of CCAPMs, the purpose of this thesis is to examine the connections between asset returns in the Australian market and consumption variables. The thesis also extends the analysis to examine CCAPMs in an international setting. There are four essays in this thesis. The first essay undertakes a thorough investigation of the empirical support for consumption-based asset pricing models in the context of several major Australian asset classes. Using the generalised method of moments (GMM) econometric approach, my study begins with the classic CCAPM originally tested by Hansen and Singleton (1982, 1983). The empirical analysis is then extended to test more-recent specifications of the CCAPM, including the habit-formation models of Abel (1990) and Campbell and Cochrane (2000), and the time nonseparable model of Epstein and Zin (1991). For each of the models examined, the results provide cautious support for the CCAPM especially in relation to equity returns. Size-sorted portfolios (in particular, portfolios of small stocks) and fixed-income returns cause the CCAPM restriction to be rejected. It also presents results that raise questions over the benefits from extensions of the classic CCAPM, such as habit-persistence and recursive utility models. The second essay studies the empirical performance of a linearised version of the classic CCAPM in the Australian market. The studies of Faff and Oliver (1998) and Faff (1998) are extended by employing more recent data and examining 25 size/BM portfolios as well as industry portfolios. It is found that by using the lagged portfolio returns, the linearised CCAPM for both industry portfolios and 25 size/BM portfolios is generally not rejected. The third essay empirically examines conditional CCAPMs where the conditioning variables are consumption factors such as the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a, 2001b), the surplus consumption ratio (Campbell and Cochrane, 1999), and the labour income to consumption ratio (Santos and Veronesi, 2006). Here long-horizon return predictability tests are conducted using these factors and cross-sectional tests on whether these factors are priced using both 25 Size/BM portfolios and industry portfolios. Utilising the Fama-MacBeth (1973) procedure, it is found that conditional models perform better than unconditional models. However, these conditional models do not outperform the Fama-French three-factor model. The fourth essay tests the world CCAPMs. Using data for 17 countries, the following are tested: the classic world CCAPM under the assumption of complete international markets integration, the heterogeneous world CCAPM under the framework of Constantinides and Duffie (1996) and the world habit models. The finding here is that a large risk aversion is needed to resolve the equity premium puzzle for the classic world CCAPM; however, adding a cross-country consumption dispersion factor into the model significantly lowers the coefficients of consumption risk aversion. Unconditional linear factor models are also studied where it is found that the world consumption growth and the dispersion of the cross-sectional consumption growth provide some explanatory basis for the variation in the cross section of excess stock returns. More sophisticated consumption models perform better than the classic world CCAPM. This thesis makes a worthwhile contribution to the research literature on CCAPMs in Australia which up to now has been limited. It performs out-of-sample tests of major CCAPMs utilising several Australian asset classes. It not only provides some insights into the return predictability of the aggregate market index in Australia, but also presents some evidence of the explanation of the cross section of stock returns using consumption variables. Further, this thesis adds to the understanding of the
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/284406 |
| Creators | Bin Li |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Detected Language | English |
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