The research assesses the value of forecast information in operating a hydro-electric project with a storage reservoir. The benefits are the increased hydro power production,
when forecasts are available. The value of short term forecasts is determined by comparing results obtained with the use of one month ahead perfect predictions to those obtained without forecasts but a knowledge of the statistics of the possible flows. The benefits with perfect forecasts provide an upper limit to the benefits which could be obtained with actual less than perfect forecasts. The effects of generating capacity and flow patterns are also discussed.
The operation of a hypothetical but typical project is modelled using stochastic dynamic
programming. A simple model of streamflow is formulated based on the historical statistics ( means and deviations).
The conclusions are: The inflow forecasts can improve the operational efficiency of the reservoir considerably because of the reduction in forecasting uncertainty. The maximum release constraints affect the additional expected values. The benefits from the forecasts increase as the discharge limits reduce. Flow predictions in the high flow season are most valuable when the runoff in that time period dominates the annual flow pattern. However flow predictions at other times of the year also have value. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UBC/oai:circle.library.ubc.ca:2429/30145 |
| Date | January 1991 |
| Creators | Zhou, Dequan |
| Publisher | University of British Columbia |
| Source Sets | University of British Columbia |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, Thesis/Dissertation |
| Rights | For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use. |
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