The problem of selecting appropriate mathematical models for use
in studying hydrological phenomena has created a situation in which the
choice of suitable models by hydrologic practitioners has become exceedingly
complex. The extensive comments in the literature indicate
that neither the traditional system of technical journals nor the more
modern computer -based retrieval schemes have really solved the problem.
Further examination shows that similar problems have arisen in many
fields, hence a well organized attack on the specific problem of hydrologic
model choice can have a more general application. The present
problem is identified as a requirement to codify and make accessible to
users information in a more directly user oriented format.
The problem of model choice arises at several levels, ranging from
decision on what fundamental structure to use, to choice of parameters,
and on to model calibration and validation. This paper is focused on a
scheme to aid in model structure choice.
The essential ingredients of model structure choice, and indeed of
many choice processes, are extracted and embedded in a generalized set
theoretic mathematical notational framework in order to give some insight
into the nature of the problem. Within this framework the
specialized features of the model choice problem are analyzed, and a
specialized model is developed for assisting in model choice and all
problems similarly situated.
These considerations lead to the development of a finite vector
of objective statements with codified responses prepared by a panel of
qualified researchers who are willing and able to construct the essential
information in a user oriented format. It is required that the
panel not only couch their information in objective oriented terms but
that they also generate value judgments for the individual components.
In this way, those using the system can take advantage of the expert
opinions embedded in the model while, at the same time, tailoring the
choice to meet their own specific needs and aspirations. This results
in what is defined as a mathematical CHOICEMODEL.
The implementation of a system for interactive computation of the
CHOICEMODEL is described in detail, and the associated computer programs
are presented in appendices.
A detailed instruction manual is given, and the implementation of
the method is illustrated by an easily understood model of the ingredients
of the problem of selecting an 8 -track stereo tape deck for home
use. The plan is outlined whereby hydrologic choice models can be
developed within the CHOICEMODEL system by a selected panel of expert
EVALUATORs.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/620101 |
| Date | 06 1900 |
| Creators | Lovell, Robert Edmund |
| Contributors | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text, Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 26 |
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