Thesis (MScEng (Civil Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The climate of the world varies from one decade to another, and a changing climate is
natural and expected. However there is a well-founded concern that the
unprecedented human industrial development activities of the past two centuries (and
mainly the last century) have caused changes over and above natural variation.
Climate change is the natural cycle through which the earth and its atmosphere are
going to accommodate the change in the amount of energy received from the sun.
There are various indicators that can be monitored to measure and verify possible
climatic changes. This thesis will firstly emphasize what the possible effects of
climate change could be on amongst others, the coastal zone, biodiversity and water
resources. If the impact of climate change on the above mentioned processes are
monitored, and changing trends can be identified, these processes could in fact be
seen as climate change indicators. This is of major importance to us, to be able to
accurately identify whether climatic changes are experienced in any given area and to
attempt to quantify it.
Engineering hydrologists are, amongst other duties, responsible for the determination
of peak discharges to be able to size conduits to safely convey the stormwater for
given recurrence interval events. All hydrological predictions are indirectly or directly
based on historical data. Empirical formulas and deterministic methods were
developed and calibrated from known historical data. Statistical predictions are
directly based on actual data. The question that arises is whether the historical data
still provides an accurate basis from which possible future events can be predicted?
This thesis strives to find an answer to this question and will also try to advise
hydrologists on how they should interpret historical data in the future, taking climate
change into consideration. The methodology that will be followed will be to compare
the percentage of occurrence of 24-hour rainfall events of different magnitudes, for
historical- as well as predicted rainfall, for five different rainfall stations in the
Western Cape. A detailed analysis of measured data at a rainfall station, with 42
years of useable data, will also be performed, to verify whether any measurable trends
have already been experienced. Conclusions shall be drawn as to possible trends, and
recommendations will be made as to how hydrologists could allow for the possible
changing rainfall patterns.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/2155 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Van Wageningen, Andries |
| Contributors | Du Plessis, J. A., University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Civil Engineering. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | University of Stellenbosch |
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