The research desires to evaluate the preventing policies on emerging infectious diseases by system dynamics, and takes the SARS situation in Taiwan for example. According to epidemiology and everything about SARS, we build the model of SARS transmission and prevention. Therefore we can simulate the situation and policies, and find the effective policies.
After the simulation and the evaluation, we find that most SARS patients at later stage are affected in hospital. For the reason, the most effective policies are the ¡uPolicy about enhancing protection abilities in hospital¡v and ¡uPolicy about reducing the interaction with people in hospital¡v. Furthermore, the effectiveness of ¡uQuarantine policies¡v is not stronger than the above policies. The most important thing is that we discover Taiwan is very lucky, because the infectivity is very low (about 3.7%). If the infectivity of SARS were as high as 10% and we still took the same policies as we took in 2003, the situation would be terrible. Anyway, when we confront this kind of emerging infectious diseases, the better way is taking policies in hospital intently.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0724104-134733 |
| Date | 24 July 2004 |
| Creators | Lo, Yu-tang |
| Contributors | Showing H. Young, none, Yi-min Tu |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0724104-134733 |
| Rights | unrestricted, Copyright information available at source archive |
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