As a consequence of asset purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB), longer-term yields in the euro area decline, and spreads between euro area long-term yields narrow. To assess spillovers of these recent financial developments, we use a Bayesian variant of the global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model with stochastic volatility and propose a novel mixture of zero impact and sign restrictions that we impose on the cross-section of the data. Both shocks generate positive and significant spillovers to industrial production in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and other non-euro area EU member states. These effects are transmitted via the financial channel (mainly through interest rates and equity prices) and outweigh costs of appreciation pressure on local currencies vis-á-vis the euro (trade channel). While these results represent general trends, we also find evidence for both cross-country heterogeneity of effects within the euro area and region-specific spillovers thereof. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VIENNA/oai:epub.wu-wien.ac.at:5554 |
Date | 05 1900 |
Creators | Feldkircher, Martin, Gruber, Thomas, Huber, Florian |
Publisher | WU Vienna University of Economics and Business |
Source Sets | Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
Language | English |
Detected Language | English |
Type | Paper, NonPeerReviewed |
Format | application/pdf |
Relation | https://www.wu.ac.at/economics/forschung/wp/, http://epub.wu.ac.at/5554/ |
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