Ammonia refrigeration systems are widely used in industry. Demand of these
systems is expected to increase due to the advantages of ammonia as refrigerant and
because ammonia is considered a green refrigerant. Therefore, it is important to evaluate
the risks in existing and future ammonia refrigeration systems to ensure their safety.
LOPA (Layer of Protection Analysis) is one of the best ways to estimate the risk.
It provides quantified risk results with less effort and time than other methods. LOPA
analyses one cause-consequence scenario per time. It requires failure data and PFD
(Probability of Failure on Demand) of the independent protection layers available to
prevent the scenario. Complete application of LOPA requires the estimation of the
severity of the consequences and the mitigated frequency of the initiating event for risk
calculations.
Especially in existing ammonia refrigeration systems, information to develop
LOPA is sometimes scarce and uncertain. In these cases, the analysis relies on expert
opinion to determine the values of the variables required for risk estimation. Fuzzy
Logic has demonstrated to be useful in this situation allowing the construction of expert
systems.
Based on fuzzy logic, the LOPA method was adapted to represent the knowledge
available in standards and good industry practices for ammonia refrigeration. Fuzzy
inference systems were developed for severity and risk calculation. Severity fuzzy inference system uses the number of life threatening injuries or deaths, number of
injuries and type of medical attention required to calculate the severity risk index.
Frequency of the mitigated scenario is calculated using generic data for the initiating
event frequency and PFD of the independent protection layers. Finally, the risk fuzzy
inference system uses the frequency and severity values obtained to determine the risk of
the scenario.
The methodology was applied to four scenarios. Risk indexes were calculated
and compared with the traditional approach and risk decisions were made.
In conclusion, the fuzzy logic LOPA method provides good approximations of
the risk for ammonia refrigeration systems. The technique can be useful for risk
assessment of existing ammonia refrigeration systems.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:tamu.edu/oai:repository.tamu.edu:1969.1/ETD-TAMU-3133 |
| Date | 15 May 2009 |
| Creators | Zuniga, Gerald Alexander |
| Contributors | Mannan, Sam M. |
| Source Sets | Texas A and M University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Book, Thesis, Electronic Thesis, text |
| Format | electronic, application/pdf, born digital |
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