The established trend of increasing raw land values,
combined with a forecast of this pattern to continue, is
both reinforcing and perpetuating general opinions with
respect to the causes of the unit price increase of raw
land. Specifically, the stigma attached to the term "land
speculation" is rapidly increasing. The existence of these
circumstances makes it imperative to identify the motives
initiating 'speculative activity' involving undeveloped
land in order to either substantiate the basis for the
growing criticism of so-called "speculators" or disprove,
with empirical evidence, the concepts on which the misconceptions
of speculation and the resulting criticism are
founded. Consequently, following a general discussion of
existing attitudes toward land in North America and the
presumed effects of land speculation, this study attempts
to establish empirically to what extent speculation in
undeveloped land exists in the City of Kamloops, its causes
and actual effects on the unit price of raw land.
The study incorporates in its framework an extensive
review of existing related literature under the general
heading of "Land Speculation - A General Discussion". The
purpose of this section of the study (Chapter II) is to
identify and summarize varied observations documented by
several authors who have both supported and rejected basic
misconceptions with respect to land speculators. In addition,
Chapter II provides a useful basis for comparing the personal
observations of reviewed authors with the subsequent actual
results of the analysis.
The primary objective of the study is to measure the
changes in raw land values from 1949-1970 in the City of
Kamloops, and to rationalize these changes in terms of market
behaviour. The approach used in an effort to achieve this
objective is a time series analysis to isolate the causes
contributing to changes in raw land values and as a result
recreate the market behaviour of raw land sales in the
intertemporary period.
The subject of the analysis and primary source of
data, is the City of Kamloops, exclusive of the unincorporated
districts contiguous to the City's boundaries. Due to
the economic substitutability of land use, it would have
been more desirable to include the contiguous unincorporated
areas; however, this was impossible as the required data was
unavailable. The sales data is derived from a sample of 620
properties representing ten percent of the total population
of legally defined parcels. The sample was obtained by
extending two rays to the City's perimeter from a predetermined
origin. The origin was chosen after completing
an analysis of demographic and land use data in order to
establish the most appropriate areas for the study. A
third line was extended across the area which presently
reflects the greatest concentration of new residential
growth.
The information requirements for each sample parcel,
acquired from Land Registry Titles and Assessment Cards,
were designed to reflect the type and number of bona fide
transactions, price trends, land turnover rates, holding
time, and pattern of development in each sample area from
1949-1970. It is important to note that the data input
derived for Sample X (North Kamloops) is representative of
an area which developed almost completely in the absence
of subdivision controls while, in comparison, the data
collected for Sample W (Sa-Hali) conversely represents an
area which is presently developing under rigid municipal
control. The importance of this factor is reemphasized
in the analysis of the data and ensuing conclusions. It
should also be noted in this connection that when the
sample areas were chosen the researchers were unaware of
the areas where development controls have been legislated
and this factor did not prejudice the extensive data
collection process.
The significant areas of investigation directly relate
to a widely quoted definition of the concept of speculation
stating that land speculation is "the holding of land out
of use pending its sale at a higher price". Comprehensive
data indicates generally for the City of Kamloops whether
land is being held off the market and if so by whom and for
what holding periods. It also establishes a pattern of
growth, price trends for residential lots, and relates to
what degree accessibility dictates a pattern of growth.
The analysis strongly supports a general conclusion
that, in the historical growth of Kamloops excessive speculation
in undeveloped land, either as previously defined
or conversely represented by a premature conversion to a
higher use, has occurred predominantly in the absence of
legislated subdivision controls resulting in inferior subdivisions
and urban sprawl. That is, speculation in itself
has only been detrimental to the raw land market in
Kamloops in the absence of legislative controls available
to the Civic government as empowered by the Municipal Act
of British Columbia. / Business, Sauder School of / Real Estate Division / Graduate
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UBC/oai:circle.library.ubc.ca:2429/41923 |
| Date | January 1971 |
| Creators | Richmond, Bruce Leslie |
| Publisher | University of British Columbia |
| Source Sets | University of British Columbia |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, Thesis/Dissertation |
| Rights | For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use. |
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