Probability is an area of mathematics that remains a mystery to many people and is problematic for others who engage in its study in secondary school or its use in fields such as science and business. Yet, ordinary people frequently encounter the informal application of aspects of probability in daily-life situations that require decision-making under uncertainty, understanding of random behaviour and consideration of likelihood. With the purpose of discovering more about children’s ‘natural’ probability strategies, in a particular part of the world, task-based interviews were conducted with 74 children aged four to twelve years from three schools. These children had not received any formal instruction in probability, as it was not part of their school curriculum. The children’s interaction with games involving random generators prompted a range of intuitive strategies for making probabilistic judgments. These invented strategies are related to the development of proportional reasoning, but are also interlaced with the development of understanding of randomness. Examination of the strategies revealed an age-related hierarchy of sophistication of reasoning and mathematical precision. The study confirmed the presence of three developmental stages, but also revealed two distinct transitional stages not reported in previous research. The characteristics of children’s thinking at each stage of development provide a further research on probabilistic thinking and contribute to planning for teaching. / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/234670 |
| Date | January 2003 |
| Creators | Way, Jenni, 1956-, University of Western Sydney, College of Arts, Education and Social Sciences, School of Education and Early Childhood Studies |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
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