The model choice problem in Hydrology is illustrated
by means of the optimum levee design for flat rivers along a
confluence reach. Special attention is given to the selection
of a probability distribution for the joint flood
stages.
The optimality criterion used is the minimization of
construction plus expected flood damage costs. The main
assumption in the mathematical model is that the levee
profile is uniquely determined as a function of the levee
heights at the extremes of the reach; thus the problem is
reduced to the determination of the optimum pair of extreme
levee heights.
The selection of a probability distribution of flood
stages, from a set of distributions estimated from the
partial duration series, is performed using either one of
two selection procedures: likelihood of the Chi -square
statistic and sample likelihoods. A composite distribution,
taking into account the model uncertainty, is also derived.
The methodology presented is applied to the remodeling
of the levee on the west bank of the Zagyva River,
in Hungary. A sensitivity analysis is performed, using the
best ranking distributions according to the two model choice procedures. The composite distribution appears to offer a
reasonable choice.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/620118 |
| Date | 06 1900 |
| Creators | Castano, Eugenio |
| Contributors | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text, Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 28 |
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