Increasing penetration of stochastic photovoltaic (PV) generation into the electric power system poses significant challenges to system operators. In the thesis, we evaluate the spatial and temporal correlations of stochastic PV generation at multiple sites. Given the unique spatial and temporal correlation of PV generation, an optimal data-driven forecast model for short-term PV power is proposed. This model leverages both spatial and temporal correlations among neighboring solar sites, and is shown to have improved performance compared with conventional persistent model. The tradeoff between communication cost and improved forecast quality is studied using realistic data sets collected from California and Colorado.
n IEEE 14 bus system test case is used to quantify the value of improved forecast quality through the reduction of system dispatch cost. The Modified spatio-temporal forecast model which has the least forecast PV overestimate percentage shows the best performance in the dispatch cost reduction.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:tamu.edu/oai:repository.tamu.edu:1969.1/149546 |
| Date | 03 October 2013 |
| Creators | Yang, Chen |
| Contributors | Xie, Le, Balog, Robert S., Cui, Shuguang, Gu, Guofei |
| Source Sets | Texas A and M University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
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