Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 94-95). / This thesis focuses on analyses of the long distance telecom service industry in US market by a system dynamics model to analyze bubble effects. The bubble effects have not been fully analyzed from the structural perspectives, although a lot of articles and papers partially explain the bubble effect. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of capacity expansion process, pricing, demand, cost, and decision making for new fiber installation is constructed by investigating the industrial structure. The model was analyzed, key factors for the bubble were identified, and their impact on the dynamics was captured. Through the analysis, I found that the fiber glut occurred by the fact that a temporal demand soar induced by the emergence of the Internet technologies leaded the telecom service providers to estimate the future demand wrongly, and the error was amplified by the long planning horizon which is economically plausible policy for each provider. I also found that the revenue reduced in the late stage of the bubble since the competitiveness in the industry stimulated price war. / by Rintaro Kurebayashi. / S.M.M.O.T.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MIT/oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/17805 |
| Date | January 2004 |
| Creators | Kurebayashi, Rintaro, 1973- |
| Contributors | Nathaniel Osgood and Sharon Eisner Gillett., Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Management of Technology Program., Management of Technology Program., Sloan School of Management |
| Publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| Source Sets | M.I.T. Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 114 leaves, 5485103 bytes, 5496823 bytes, application/pdf, application/pdf, application/pdf |
| Rights | M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission., http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 |
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