The correct model of a liquid financial market is one of the most important matter for a management of all financial market activities including for example a stock or bond porfolio management or an asset pricing. Clear random walk models, which consider a market price/yield development on liquid financial markets to be a random walk within the meaning of a symmetric normal (gaussian) distribution, is very useful to explain quite accurately many financial market effects. If we study financial markets more closely, we recognize that such development can be partly causal and a clear random walk is only a special case of it. Dynamic Financial Market Model considers feedback processes on financial markets which cause an dependence in a probability of next price/yield step direction and also expects mix of random processes as a final result. Both effects cause not gaussian (normal) observations in probability distributions of finacial instruments and this is why the model is also able to explain for example effects like thin or fat tails and other deformations in the probability distribution. S&P500 index or Euro Bund futures probability distribution on daily basis are good examples of the diversion from normality.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:73090 |
| Date | January 2008 |
| Creators | Stádník, Bohumil |
| Contributors | Musílek, Petr, Brada, Jaroslav, Zmeškal, Zdeněk |
| Publisher | Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze |
| Source Sets | Czech ETDs |
| Language | Czech |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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