Abstract
With the economic growth as well as the advent of the post-industry age in the 21st century, a variety of investment patterns for people to employ progressively appear. Moreover, there is a tendency in which people¡¦s traditional and conservative manners for investments gradually transform into aggressive ones with a preference of risks. For instance, it has been impossible nowadays for certain simple finance-managing mechanisms, such as the Certificate of Deposit, the Bond or even Stock Markets, to satisfy general investors¡¦ needs. Therefore, more and more financial products have become available, especially a lot of derivative securities like options, futures, or stock options. Furthermore, the activities of horseracing, dog racing or even lottery are no longer taboos in Taiwan. As far as the lotteries in most of the counties are concerned, the government is usually the main host, regarding them as additional effortless sources of tax revenue.
During the earlier periods in Taiwan, the only lottery available was the national ¡§Ai-Guo¡¨ lottery issued by the government. Unfortunately, a lot of unlawful gambling gangs took advantage of the popularity of ¡§Ai-Guo¡¨ lottery by utilizing it as the sources of the so-called ¡§Da-Jia-Le¡¨ lottery, which was an illegal, yet popular underground gambling activity. The ¡§Da-Jia-Le¡¨ lottery not only corrupted the social values and caused a lot of criminal actions, but also made an acute and serious impact on regular economic operations. Consequently, the government resolutely called a halt on the ¡§Ai-Guo¡¨ lottery. Nevertheless, the prevailing gambling mania did decline; on the contrary, it further transformed into a covert and under-the-counter gambling operation attached to the Hong Kong lottery. The craze almost swept the entire country, resulting in more and more social problems and having troubled the authorities for a long period of time. To settle such a predicament, government decided to refer to the experiences of other countries, beginning to launch local lotteries in Taiwan, instead of prohibiting people from attending illicit gambling activities. On the one hand, the government would be able to set the lottery business back on right track and eliminate the root of the underground economic operations, which brought about many social problems. On the other hand, the local lottery would provide extra tax revenue for the administrations as well as more employment opportunities for handicapped people. Accordingly, Taiwanese Lottery was launched in the beginning of the year 2002. Until now, mainly due to the attraction of the surprisingly huge bonus shares offered by the lottery¡¦s highest prize, the public response is overwhelming. The social environment in which the stochastic investment actions become authorized and gradually prevail directly triggers the motivation of this research in further investigating the feasibility of the investment.
The research takes Taiwan Public Welfare Lottery as an investment research case, exploring the game rules of lottery in an attempt to enhance the probability of winning prizes and further testing and evaluating the effectiveness of various simple biting tools adopted by the general public in order to obtain the most effective biting ways for individual investor¡¦s reference. The process of this study is as follows:
1. Testing the randomness of the winning prize numbers in Taiwan Public Welfare Lottery.
2. Estimating the possible distribution of the population via the statistical application.
3. Using the cluster analysis to induce the sub-cluster of the selected numbers according to the patterns of the historical prize numbers.
4. Making use of Markov Chain to select the sub-cluster, which is within an investor¡¦s upper limit of risks.
And consequently, this study reveals the followings:
1. The winning prize numbers are random within study samples.
2. The statistic order of the winning prize numbers is £] distribution.
3. The cluster effect is slightly enhanced when the sub-cluster is chosen through the cluster analysis rather than random ways.
4. The application of Markov Chain has an obvious reinforcement on the selection of sub-cluster.
5. The so-called ¡§Smart Package Biting¡¨, which is adopted by the general public, cannot improve the winning possibility; however, depending on individual investor¡¦s needs, it could be a useful tool for risk management.
Through a seemingly aimless random event, the research explores the possible development of the modeling process, so as to comprehend and experience a manager¡¦s mental course on decision making in a dynamic, capricious or even chaotic managerial environment.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0730103-113500 |
| Date | 30 July 2003 |
| Creators | Chen, Wen-Tai |
| Contributors | Jen-der Dai, Hsien-tang Tsai, Cher-min Fong, Iuan-yuan Lu |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0730103-113500 |
| Rights | campus_withheld, Copyright information available at source archive |
Page generated in 0.002 seconds