The main purpose of this project was to help Swedbank get a better understandingof how gross domestic product growth rate develops in the future froma data set of macroeconomic variables. Since GDP values are released long aftera quarter has ended Swedbank would like to have a model that could predictupcoming GDP from these data sets. This was solved by a combination ofgrowth rate predictions from a dynamic factor model, a vector autoregressivemodel and two machine learning models. The predictions were combined usinga weighting method called system averaging model where the model predictionwith least historical error receives the largest weight in the nal future prediction.In previous work a simple moving average model has been implementedto achieve this eect however there are several aws in a simple moving averagemodel. Most of these defects could in theory be avoided by using an exponentialweighting scheme instead. This resulted in the use of an exponentialweighting method that is used to calculate weights for future predictions. Themain conclusions from this project were that some predictions could get betterwhen removing bad performing models which had too large of a weight. Puttingtoo high weight on a single well performing model is also not optimal since thepredictions could get very unstable because of varying model performance. Theexponential weighting scheme worked well for some predictions however whenthe parameter , that controls how the weight is distributed between recent andhistorical errors, got too small a problem arose. Too few values were used toform the nal weights for the prediction and the estimate got unsteady results.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:umu-132951 |
| Date | January 2017 |
| Creators | Björnfot, Fredrik |
| Publisher | Umeå universitet, Institutionen för fysik |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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