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A Conditioned Gaussian-Poisson Model for Default Phenomena

<p>We introduce a new model to study the behavior of a portfolio of defaultable assets. We refer to this model as the Gaussian-Poisson model. It builds upon one-factor Gaussian copula models and Poisson models (specifically Cox processes). Our model utilizes a random variable <i>Y</i> along with probability measures ℙ<sup></sup> and ℙ<sup></sup>. The measures ℙ<sup></sup> and ℙ<sup></sup> will act as market pricing measures and are obtained via conditioning. The random variable <i>Y</i> will act as a default descriptor.</p>
<p> We provide the distribution of <i>Y</i> under both ℙ<sup></sup> and ℙ<sup></sup>. We use a conditional probability to examine expected portfolio and tranche losses, with applications including credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations. The Gaussian-Poisson model requires a choice of an intensity model. We examine a portfolio loss' dependence upon parameters of the intensity model. Finally, we present three possible models of the intensity process. </p>

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:LSU/oai:etd.lsu.edu:etd-07062016-113754
Date14 July 2016
CreatorsBrannan, Tyler
ContributorsSengupta, Ambar, Wan, Xiaoliang, Cohen, Daniel, Cochran, George, Kurtz, Richard
PublisherLSU
Source SetsLouisiana State University
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
Formatapplication/pdf
Sourcehttp://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-07062016-113754/
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