The purpose of this study was to determine whether scores from a third year, General Secondary school exam could be predicted from scores from an earlier exam for students in The Ismailia Educational District in Egypt. Students take the first exam at the end of grade 9 and the second exam at the end of grade 12. Presently, the grade 12 exam is used to determine whether students have "passed" and for admission to higher education. One reason for the investigation was to determine whether the ninth grade scores might have utility in guiding students in the selection of major areas, which occurs at the end of grade 10. / This study differed from others in that the Egyptian exams are free response or essay type rather than multiple choice. In addition, the exams yield several scores, providing both multiple predictor and multiple outcome variables. Multivariate Multiple Regression (MMR) techniques were used to analyze the data. / Subjects for the study were randomly drawn from students in The Ismailia Education District for whom both sets of scores existed. Males (340) and females (303) were distributed over the three major areas--Literary (LM, 234), Mathematics (MM, 158) and Science (SM, 251). / Standard MMR procedures were used. The total sample was split in two to provide for cross validation. Tests for parallelism and coincidence were conducted to determine whether separate models were needed for males and females. Three sets of predictors were used: (1) original variables, (2) the sum of scores from (1), and (3) principal component transformations of (1) and (2). For (1), the logical order of entry differed for LM, MM and SM and was derived on the basis of differences in the three curricula. / Criteria were established for determining the best prediction equation for the several outcomes. For LM, and logical order of variables proved to be best; for MM and SM, the total score proved to be the best predictor. / The R('2) values ranged from low .20's to a high of .52. A sample of 95 percent conficence intervals were constructed for single observations. The intervals were wide, indicating less accuracy than might be desired. / Accuracy of decisions on major groups was estimated by comparing the predicted pass/fail with an actual pass/fail, using a median cut-off score as criteria. Accuracy ratios for males and females in the three groups ranged from .65 to .83. / The basic question dealt with the predictability of scores and was answered with a qualified "yes." This is consistent with prior research. Accuracy of decisions, predicted "pass" to actual "pass", indicated that the scores may play an important role in advising as well as in selection/admission. / The exams are part of the Egyptian Educational System. The scores have not been used for helping students make decisions about major areas of study. To do so implies the existence of trained counselors, without whom the use of scores could take on more importance than they should. Hence, it is obvious that much more work must be done before the scores can assume a new use. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 41-07, Section: A, page: 3064. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1980.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_74206 |
| Contributors | EL-SAYYAD, ABDELATTI AHMED., Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text |
| Format | 156 p. |
| Rights | On campus use only. |
| Relation | Dissertation Abstracts International |
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