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Using Radar-Derived Parameters to Forecast Lightning Cessation for Nonisolated Storms

Lightning inhibits normal operating conditions at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and other locations, leading to inconvenience
and detrimental economic impacts. Lightning cessation guidance must safely protect lives and infrastructure. This research focuses on
"nonisolated" lightning cases which we defined as one cell whose flashes had ceased while embedded in weak composite reflectivity (Z ≥ 15
dBZ) with another cell still producing flashes. The dataset consisted of 50 warm season (May-September) nonisolated storms near KSC during
2013. The research utilized the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), the second generation Lightning Detection and Ranging
(LDAR-II), and dual polarimetric radar data. These data were merged and analyzed using the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated
Information (WDSS-II) at 1 min intervals. The parameters, such as horizontal reflectivity (ZH), that decreased greatest during the
cessation period were ZH > 40 dBZ at -5°C, ZH > 35 dBZ at -10°C, graupel presence at -10°C, and graupel presence at -15°C. We tested
60 cessation schemes utilizing a wait time approach. Our safest scheme required that the distance from our decaying storm's 30 dBZ core to
the closest signature of graupel associated with the active storm (30G) be greater than 10 nm (~19 km) and the horizontal reflectivity be
less than 40 dBZ at -5°C for 10 min. In the independent (dependent dataset), this scheme produced one (zero) false alarm. More research is
needed to analyze nonisolated cessation, since no algorithm produced perfect skill when applied to the independent
dataset. / A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. / Spring Semester 2016. / March 1, 2016. / Cessation, Lightning / Includes bibliographical references. / Henry E. Fuelberg, Professor Directing Thesis; Ming Cai, Committee Member; Jeffrey Chagnon,
Committee Member.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_360338
ContributorsDavey, Matthew John (authoraut), Fuelberg, Henry E. (professor directing thesis), Cai, Ming (committee member), Chagnon, Jeffrey M. (committee member), Florida State University (degree granting institution), College of Arts and Sciences (degree granting college), Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science (degree granting department)
PublisherFlorida State University, Florida State University
Source SetsFlorida State University
LanguageEnglish, English
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeText, text
Format1 online resource (47 pages), computer, application/pdf
RightsThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them.

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