Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering the right amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price has become the key for utility companies pursuing maximum profits under deregulated electricity market. Therefore, electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting became essential for decision making, scheduling and bidding strategy planning purposes. However, forecasting electricity MCP is a very difficult problem due to uncertainties associated with input variables.<p>
Neural network based approach promises to be an effective forecasting tool in an environment with high degree of non-linearity and uncertainty. Although there are several techniques
available for short-term MCP forecasting, very little has been done to do mid-term MCP forecasting. Two new artificial neural networks have been proposed and reported in this thesis
that can be utilized to forecast mid-term daily peak and mid-term hourly electricity MCP. The proposed neural networks can simulate the electricity MCP with electricity hourly demand,
electricity daily peak demand, natural gas price and precipitation as input variables. Two situations have been considered; electricity MCP forecasting under real deregulated electric
market and electricity MCP forecasting under deregulated electric market with perfect competition. The PJM interconnect system has been utilized for numerical results. Techniques
have been developed to overcome difficulties in training the neural network and improve the training results.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:SSU.etd-10302009-162704 |
| Date | 10 November 2009 |
| Creators | Yan, Xing |
| Contributors | Chowdhury, Nurul A., Chen, L., Faired, S. O., Boulfiza, M. |
| Publisher | University of Saskatchewan |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://library.usask.ca/theses/available/etd-10302009-162704/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to University of Saskatchewan or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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