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2015_LaurentRogerMarieQuéno.pdf: 3826979 bytes, checksum: 6db82beddc7b3b843b62803997939045 (MD5) / Este trabalho trata da produção de pellets de madeira no Brasil: a estratégia das empresas produtoras, o custo de produção e o risco do investimento. Foram entrevistadas nove fábricas localizadas na Região Sul do país: 43 % dessa produção são exportadas, o que representa 23.000 toneladas por ano. As empresas brasileiras produtoras são geralmente de pequeno a médio porte (1200 a 25.000 toneladas por ano) e são focalizadas na transformação da maravalha de Pinus que é um resíduo da indústria madeireira com preço acessível e de fácil pelletização. Dois fatores principais favorecem o crescimento recente da produção brasileira: no mercado interno, a competitividade comparada a outras fontes de energia, e no mercado de exportação, o cambio favorável. O custo de produção foi estimado a 340 R$/t sem a tributação. O custo da matéria-prima maravalha representa 50% desse custo e a energia 15%. O meio de baixar esse custo seria de pelletizar a serragem úmida que é uma matéria-prima abundante e mais barata. Também favorecer a venda do pellet a granel porque evitaria a etapa cara e não ecológica do ensacamento. O risco financeiro foi estimado por meio da Simulação de Monte Carlo (MCS). Para uma fábrica vendendo metade da sua produção no mercado interno e a outra metade no mercado externo, o VPL tem 42,2% de chance de ser negativo e a TIR possui 36 % de chance de ser inferior à taxa mínima de atratividade que foi considerada de 14,15% a.a. As elasticidades em relação ao VPL e a TIR das variáveis formando o custo de produção foram estimadas. This paper deals with the wood pellets production in Brazil: the strategy of the producers, the production costs and the investment risk. Nine plants were interviewed located in the southern region of the country: 43% of production is exported, representing 23,000 tons per year. Brazilian producers companies are generally small to medium sized (1200 to 25,000 tons per year) and are focused on the transformation of pine wood shavings which is a residue from the timber industry with affordable and easy pelletização.
Two main factors further the recent growth of Brazilian production: in the internal market, the competitiveness compared to other energy sources, and in the export market, the advantageous exchange. The cost of production was estimated at 340 R$.t-1 without taxation. The cost of the raw material shavings represents 50% of this cost and energy 15%. The way to lower this cost would be pelletize wet sawdust which is a raw material abundant and cheaper. Also promote the sale of the bulk pellet because it would avoid the expensive and not environmentally friendly step of bagging.
The financial risk was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). For a factory selling half of its production on the domestic market and the other half in foreign markets, the NAV has 42.2% chance of being negative and the IRR has 36% chance of being below the minimum rate of attractiveness that was considered of 14.15% pa. The elasticity in relation to the NPV and the IRR of the variables forming the cost of production were estimated. / This paper deals with the wood pellets production in Brazil: the strategy of the producers, the production costs and the investment risk. Nine plants were interviewed located in the southern region of the country: 43% of production is exported, representing 23,000 tons per year. Brazilian producers companies are generally small to medium sized (1200 to 25,000 tons per year) and are focused on the transformation of pine wood shavings which is a residue from the timber industry with affordable and easy pelletização. Two main factors further the recent growth of Brazilian production: in the internal market, the competitiveness compared to other energy sources, and in the export market, the advantageous exchange. The cost of production was estimated at 340 R$.t-1 without taxation. The cost of the raw material shavings represents 50% of this cost and energy 15%. The way to lower this cost would be pelletize wet sawdust which is a raw material abundant and cheaper. Also promote the sale of the bulk pellet because it would avoid the expensive and not environmentally friendly step of bagging. The financial risk was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). For a factory selling half of its production on the domestic market and the other half in foreign markets, the NAV has 42.2% chance of being negative and the IRR has 36% chance of being below the minimum rate of attractiveness that was considered of 14.15% pa. The elasticity in relation to the NPV and the IRR of the variables forming the cost of production were estimated.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.unb.br:10482/20726 |
| Date | 30 September 2015 |
| Creators | Quéno, Laurent Roger Marie |
| Contributors | Souza, Álvaro Nogueira de |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UnB, instname:Universidade de Brasília, instacron:UNB |
| Rights | A concessão da licença deste item refere-se ao termo de autorização impresso assinado pelo autor com as seguintes condições: Na qualidade de titular dos direitos de autor da publicação, autorizo a Universidade de Brasília e o IBICT a disponibilizar por meio dos sites www.bce.unb.br, www.ibict.br, http://hercules.vtls.com/cgi-bin/ndltd/chameleon?lng=pt&skin=ndltd sem ressarcimento dos direitos autorais, de acordo com a Lei nº 9610/98, o texto integral da obra disponibilizada, conforme permissões assinaladas, para fins de leitura, impressão e/ou download, a título de divulgação da produção científica brasileira, a partir desta data., info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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