Severe weather outbreaks are fairly common events that occur multiple times a year. Many studies have attempted to define and quantify these outbreaks, however, no work has been done to directly relate synoptic-scale processes to outbreak intensity using the N15 ranking index. It is believed that a statistically significantly strong relationship between outbreak severity and quantified synoptic-scale parameters exists and can be utilized to predict the severity of an upcoming outbreak using the N15 ranking index. Utilizing the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis dataset, synoptic-scale variables were chosen and standardized into domains created from areal coverages. A series of tests were completed, including stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and a bootstrap cross-validation method to find the most significant variables and best domain size. The findings from this study suggest that synoptic-scale processes do not have a strong relationship to severe weather outbreak intensity and that future work would be necessary.
Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MSSTATE/oai:scholarsjunction.msstate.edu:td-4157 |
Date | 12 August 2016 |
Creators | Pierce, Patrick Randy |
Publisher | Scholars Junction |
Source Sets | Mississippi State University |
Detected Language | English |
Type | text |
Format | application/pdf |
Source | Theses and Dissertations |
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