Thesis advisor: Michael Grubb / This paper investigates the discount rates applied by NFL teams to future draft picks when engaging in trades during the annual NFL Draft. Utilizing a dataset of 353 draft pick trades from 2010 to 2024, the study employs a non-linear regression model to estimate the parameters of a Weibull distribution, which captures the value decay of draft picks over time. The model incorporates a discount factor to account for the devaluation of future picks. The results provide evidence of varying discount rates across the three days of the draft, with the highest rate of approximately 182% on Day 1, and lower rates of 53% and 97% on Day 2 and Day 3, respectively. These findings suggest that NFL teams place a greater premium on immediate returns when trading early round picks. The study contributes to the understanding of decision-making under uncertainty in high-stakes environments and offers insights into the strategic considerations and market dynamics of the NFL Draft. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2024. / Submitted to: Boston College. Morrissey School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics. / Discipline: Departmental Honors.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BOSTON/oai:dlib.bc.edu:bc-ir_110011 |
| Date | January 2024 |
| Creators | Lee, Kyungjae |
| Publisher | Boston College |
| Source Sets | Boston College |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, thesis |
| Format | electronic, application/pdf |
| Rights | Copyright is held by the author, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise noted. |
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