Šiame darbe pateikiami standartiniai modeliai bei priemonės, kurios plačiai taikomos ne gyvybės draudime. Vėliau, šių modelių bei priemonių pagalba atliekama žalų atėjimo momentų ir žalų dydžių statistinė analizė realiems ne gyvybės draudimo duomenims. Rezultatas – žalų skaičiaus procesą aprašantis Puasono proceso modelis su intensyvumo parametro pasikeitimu bei žalų dydžius apibūdinanti pasiskirstymo funkcija. Intensyvumo parametro pasikeitimo taškas rastas [2] darbe pateiktu algoritmu. / The subject of the research is statistical analysis of claim arrival times and claim sizes in non-life insurance. First, I present some standard models and tools of non-life insurance mathematics. Also, I introduce the statistical tools for analysing the claim number and size processes, such as QQ plots, Mean excess plots, etc. Second, the statistical analysis of claim arrival times and claim sizes for the 4 years real car insurance data are done. Results show that homogeneous Poisson process is a suitable model for the arrivals for shorter periods of time (such as one year). In addition, claim sizes data reveals heavy-tailedness and skewedness to the right. Finally, the change point problem in the rate parameter of the Poisson process was studied. The change point was detected using algorithm given in [2].
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LABT_ETD/oai:elaba.lt:LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2006~D_20140702_190639-31743 |
| Date | 02 July 2014 |
| Creators | Gimbickas, Andrius |
| Contributors | Leipus, Remigijus, Vilnius University |
| Publisher | Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), Vilnius University |
| Source Sets | Lithuanian ETD submission system |
| Language | Lithuanian |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Master thesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2006~D_20140702_190639-31743 |
| Rights | Unrestricted |
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