<p>Much of current interest in
aviation biofuels centers on trying to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases (GHGs) [1]. The problem is that the alternative aviation
fuels which have been developed so far are not economically viable without
policy supports and are underwhelming in regards to their environmental
sustainability. The objective of this
research is to identify biofuel pathways that perform better economically and
environmentally than those which have been developed thus far. This paper will pursue this objective by
examining the economic performance of a CH pathway fed by field pennycress
under a number of possible scenarios.</p>
<p>We conduct a stochastic discounted
cash flow techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a plant designed to use catalytic
hydrothermolysis (CH) technology to produce renewable diesel fuel, renewable
jet fuel, and renewable naphtha from pennycress seed oil on a “greenfield” site
under sixteen different scenarios defined by plant location, stage of
commercialization, choice of fuel product slate, and policy environment. We combine process parameters such as
conversion efficiencies, heat and water requirements, and capital costs for our
model plant with stochastic projections of key input and output prices in order
to model the distribution of possible financial outcomes for the plant over a
twenty-year productive life. Our work
follows McGarvey and Tyner (2018) in many respects, but uses updated process
parameters from Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA), connects with economic
analyses of the potential pennycress oil supply chain, and includes novel
approaches to modeling key policies (US Renewable Fuel Standard, California Low
Carbon Fuel Standard, and US Biodiesel Blender Tax Credit) and price series (US
No. 2 diesel fuel, soybean oil, and dried distiller’s grains with solubles) [2]. Our output metrics include distributions of Net
Present Values (NPVs), Probabilities of Loss (POLs), and distributions
of Breakeven Prices (BEPs) for key inputs and outputs.</p>
<p>Our results show that aviation biofuels production
at a greenfield CH plant fed by pennycress seed oil is not economic under current
market and policy conditions. Our
breakeven metrics for a renewable jet fuel policy incentive, crude oil prices,
and the input cost of pennycress oil indicate this could change if one of the
following were to occur: </p>
<p>·
A crude oil price increase of at least 31-52%</p>
<p>·
A jet fuel price increase of at least 11-26%</p>
<p>·
A pennycress oil price discount of 2-6% from
soybean oil prices</p>
<p>·
Some combination of the above</p>
<p>These findings are heavily influenced by current
policy design.</p>
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:purdue.edu/oai:figshare.com:article/11319992 |
| Date | 14 January 2021 |
| Creators | Jeremiah H Stevens (8081624) |
| Source Sets | Purdue University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, Thesis |
| Rights | CC BY 4.0 |
| Relation | https://figshare.com/articles/thesis/A_stochastic_techno-economic_analysis_of_aviation_biofuels_production_from_pennycress_seed_oil/11319992 |
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