In the present study, methodological approaches to assess the impact of climate change on the thermal and thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) regimes of the ground in some selected Canadian no-permafrost areas (Ottawa, Sudbury, Toronto) is proposed. A modeling study to evaluate ground temperature variations due to global warming is conducted using TEMP/W software from Geoslope ltd. The effect of future climate change projections, up to 2100, on the ground freeze-thaw cycle frequencies, frost penetration depth, and frost duration is assessed in some selected sites located in the Canadian no-permafrost region. Moreover, three softwares (TEMP/W, SEEP/W and SIGMA/W from Geoslope Ltd) have been used to establish a numerical tool that enable to assess the effect of global warming on THM response of the grounds in the selected Canadian no-permafrost areas. TEMP/W and SEEP/W were coupled in a thermo-hydraulic analysis to assess the impact of global warming on the hydraulic regime of the ground. Afterwards, SEEP/W and SIGMA/W were coupled in a hydraulic-mechanical analysis to study the impact of climate change induced porewater pressures change on the mechanical regime of the ground in some no-permafrost regions. Simulation study to assess the effect ground temperature changes on key geotechnical properties of the soils in the selected sites is conducted by using the aforementioned numerical tool. The change of the porewater pressure changes and distributions in the soil induced by global warming is studied. The effect of climate change on the ground consolidation or settlement in the selected no-permafrost sites is also investigated. Finally, this study provides a simulation of a bridge pile foundation ground to detect the THM changes around the pile structure due to climate warming.
The results indicate that climate change will affect the thermal regime of the ground in the selected Canadian no permafrost areas. Ground temperature in the studied no-permafrost regions will likely increase by 2 to 4 C by 2100 due to global warming. Furthermore, the frost penetration depth will be significantly reduced in all study areas. It is also found that the frost duration will experience a gradual reduction with time up to 2100. In addition, the simulation results showed minimal influence of global warming on the porewater pressure distribution and magnitude in the studied grounds. Aligned to this, climate change did not seem to have a significant effect on the consolidation behavior or settlement of the ground in the studied no-permafrost areas. The simulation of the foundation ground confirms the results mentioned above, as temperature changes around the pile structure falls within the same range found in the thermal analysis. Porewater pressure distributions and ground settlement are not significantly affected along the pile perimeter. Overall, the design of pile foundation in the Canadian no-permafrost region will not be significantly affected by climate change up 2100. The tools developed and results obtained will be useful for the geotechnical design of climate-adaptive civil engineering or transportation structures in Canadian no permafrost areas.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uottawa.ca/oai:ruor.uottawa.ca:10393/42542 |
| Date | 13 August 2021 |
| Creators | Marrah, Mohammed Yassir |
| Contributors | Fall, Mamadou, Almansour, Husham Khazal Hammadi |
| Publisher | Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa |
| Source Sets | Université d’Ottawa |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
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