Return to search

Spekulační aktivita na trhu s ropou a její vliv na cenu komodity / Speculation on oil markets and its impact on commodity's price

This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:261935
Date January 2011
CreatorsMelcher, Ota
ContributorsTaušer, Josef, Baláž, Peter, Müller, Štěpán
PublisherVysoká škola ekonomická v Praze
Source SetsCzech ETDs
LanguageCzech
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
Rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess

Page generated in 0.0017 seconds