Since an extratropical transition (ET) of a decaying tropical cyclone (TC) often results in a fast-moving, rapidly developing extratropical cyclone and amplification of synoptic-scale systems far downstream, proper forecasting of ET events is critical to forecast accuracy over large ocean regions. Past studies have linked forecast accuracy to the phasing of a decaying TC with favorable midlatitudes conditions. Because ET events are sensitive to the analyzed initial conditions, this phasing is examined using 11 member ensemble predictions available four times daily from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which were combined into a single 44 member ensemble based on a common forecast verification time. Recurring ET patterns within the 44 member ensemble were objectively identified using a combination of EOF and cluster analysis. Ensemble spread first appears near the point where the TC moves into the midlatitudes and then propagates downstream. Although ensemble spread in the forecast fields was large at extended forecast intervals, the ensemble spread, and the number of ET patterns identified in successive EPS predictions, decreased as the ET process became better defined. Within 48 hours of the ET event, the ensemble prediction system properly identified the ET pattern with a minimum ensemble spread. Similar to Klein et al. (2002), the shifts in the initial position of the TC and the subsequent dynamical coupling can explain differences between weak and strong ET reintensifications.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/1864 |
| Date | 06 1900 |
| Creators | Reeves, Justin Martin. |
| Contributors | Harr, Patrick, Elsberry, Russell, Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)., Department of Meteorology |
| Publisher | Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
| Source Sets | Naval Postgraduate School |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xvi, 97 p. : col. ill. ;, application/pdf |
| Rights | Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
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