BACKGROUND
Little attention is given to the role of migration in global population projection models.
Most demographers set future levels of net migration on trajectories towards zero in all
countries, nullifying the impact of migration on long-run projected populations. Yet as
fertility and mortality rates fall, the role of migration on future population change is
becoming more pronounced.
OBJECTIVES
In this paper we develop future long-run migration scenarios to provide a range of
possible outcomes.
METHODS
Our alternative migration scenarios are linked to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSP), widely used in research on global environmental change. These are utilized as
inputs for a global cohort component projection model to obtain population totals up
until 2100 for all countries.
CONTRIBUTION
The results illustrate the important role of migration assumptions in long-run
projections, especially in post-demographic-transition countries. Further, they provide
plausible alternatives to projections based on the commonly used, but poorly justified,
convergence towards a zero net migration assumption.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VIENNA/oai:epub.wu-wien.ac.at:6387 |
| Date | 16 May 2018 |
| Creators | Abel, Guy |
| Publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| Source Sets | Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Article, NonPeerReviewed |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Germany (CC BY 3.0 DE) |
| Relation | http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.54, http://www.demographic-research.org, https://www.mpg.de/de, http://epub.wu.ac.at/6387/ |
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