Cyclogenesis is examined based on the principle that development can be viewed as an interaction between upper and lower cyclonic disturbances, and that the surface response is related to the magnitude of both disturbances. It is shown that variability in successive operational model forecasts results from variations in the representation of the features at both levels, but that particular predictions can be sufficiently realistic for diagnostic purposes. The variability in two successive forecasts of a specific case is explained as a moist baroclinic response modulated by the growth of low-level cyclonic vorticity prior to the period of rapid deepening. This antecedent vorticity growth came about through a self-development mechanism involving an interaction between quasigeostrophic processes, surface energy fluxes and warm-frontal latent heat release. In order to define the preconditioning for this case, it is necessary to resolve these processes, interacting on both meso and synoptic scales.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:QMM.70311 |
| Date | January 1991 |
| Creators | Roebber, Paul J. |
| Publisher | McGill University |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Coverage | Doctor of Philosophy (Department of Meteorology.) |
| Rights | All items in eScholarship@McGill are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated. |
| Relation | alephsysno: 001274918, proquestno: AAINN74753, Theses scanned by UMI/ProQuest. |
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