The present study was trying to analyze if the practice of the recent brazilian monetary policy could be explained by the Taylorâs Rule, that recommends a target for the basic interest rate of the economy based on four factors: the current inflation rate; the equilibrium real interest
rate; an inflation gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the inflation rate and one given target for inflation; and an output gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the real output and the potential real output.
The studied period was from 1995/07 to 2003/12, and the three following analyses were established:
a) on Level I â on this analysis were verified the relation between the series of the effective levels of the Selic Interesting rate, and series of this rate purposed by Taylor-type rules quite close to the original proposal;
b) Dynamics â on this second analysis were estimated equations based on a Dynamic Model of the Taylorâs Rule, and verified the power of explanation, of those to the effective variations on the Selic rate; and
c) on Level II â on this last analysis were estimated equations based on Taylorâs structure, and were verified the explanation power, of those to the effective level of the Selic rate.
The results of the referred analyses point to an Idea that Taylorâs Rule, in spite of treating of a simple rule of monetary politics, would have in its scope important elements to explain the Brazilian Monetary Policy on the analyzed period. / Este estudo buscou analisar se a prÃtica da recente polÃtica monetÃria brasileira poderia ser explicada pela Regra de Taylor, que recomenda uma meta, para a taxa de juros bÃsica
da economia, baseada em quatro fatores: a taxa de inflaÃÃo corrente; a taxa de juros real de equilÃbrio; um fator de ajuste do desvio da inflaÃÃo, baseado na diferenÃa entre a taxa de inflaÃÃo e a meta para inflaÃÃo; e um fator de ajuste do desvio do produto, baseado na diferenÃa entre o produto real e o produto real potencial.
O PerÃodo observado foi de 1995/07 a 2003/12, e foram estabelecidas as trÃs seguintes
anÃlises :
a) Em NÃvel I â verificaram-se as relaÃÃes entre sÃries dos nÃveis efetivos da Selic e sÃries dessa Taxa sugerida por regras do tipo Taylor bem prÃximas da proposiÃÃo original;
b) DinÃmica- estimaram-se equaÃÃes com base em um modelo DinÃmico da Regra de Taylor e verificou-se o poder de explicaÃÃo dessas quanto Ãs variaÃÃes efetivas da Taxa Selic; e
c) Em NÃvel II- estimaram-se equaÃÃes com base na estrutura de Taylor e verificou-se o poder de explicaÃÃo dessas quanto aos nÃveis efetivos da Taxa Selic.
Os resultados apontam para a idÃia de que a Regra de Taylor, apesar de tratar-se de uma regra simples de polÃtica monetÃria, teria, em seu escopo, elementos importantes para
explicar a polÃtica monetÃria brasileira no perÃodo analisado.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:www.teses.ufc.br:1617 |
| Date | 28 September 2004 |
| Creators | Leonardo Porto Freire |
| Contributors | Pichai Chumvichitra |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do CearÃ, Programa de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Economia - CAEN, UFC, BR |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC, instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará, instacron:UFC |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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