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SENATORIAL VOTING BEHAVIOR AND THE TEMPORAL PROXIMITY OF ELECTIONS

The research is an attempt to empirically evaluate a number of questions pertaining to the voting behavior of U.S. senators. To that end, the activities of all 212 senators who served complete terms between 1958 and 1976 are examined. / The first set of related hypotheses can be represented: The voting behavior of U.S. senators, measured on a liberal/conservative dimension, will tend to change immediately prior to their reelection effort. The hypothesis is tested by predicting the direction of sixth-year change on the part of senators, and comparing that predicted change to the direction and magnitude of actual change. Partisan affiliation is used as the predictor of direction of change based on the fact that reelection-seeking Democrats tend to face challengers who are (perceived as being) more conservative than themselves, and Republicans tend to face those who are more liberal. The data indicate that for Democrats who seek reelection, the sixth year of their terms is when they exhibit the most conservative voting behavior: significantly, the fifth year is the next most conservative. Conversely, reelection-seeking Republicans are most liberal in their terms' last year, with the fifth year almost as liberal. These sixth-year differences are statistically significant, for both partisan groups, with p (LESSTHEQ) .005. / Retiring senators do not display this ideological metamorphosis. Retiring Republicans become more conservative in the sixth year than they had been previously: Democrats become more liberal. / The data also reveal a positive relationship (among reelection-seekers), between the level of perceived electoral risk and the magnitude of sixth-year change. / The subsequent hypotheses suggest a positive relationship between senatorial and constituent conservatism. For reelection-seekers, the relationship is notably strong: for Democrats, r = .74, for Republicans, .64. For senators of both parties, the statistical relationship is palpably weaker for retirees. / We find that reelection-seekers participate in rollcalls significantly more often than retirees. Also, among reelection-seeking senators, unwillingness to indicate positions on issues increases significantly in the sixth year. / In conclusion, senators occasionally vote contrary to constituency preferences, especially early in the term, when constituents are less attentive. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 42-11, Section: A, page: 4922. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1981.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_74695
ContributorsTHOMAS, MARTIN., Florida State University
Source SetsFlorida State University
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeText
Format185 p.
RightsOn campus use only.
RelationDissertation Abstracts International

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