Abstract How does living in a violent context influence political participation, political behavior, and attitudes about democracy? Since the end of the Cold War, intrastate violence has increased across developing democracies. This growing violence has occurred in parallel with the proliferation of elections. Although today, in almost every country globally, citizens are afforded the chance to select their leadership, too often, bullets and ballots mix. The mix of voting and violence threatens the democratization process, undermines essential democratic institutions, and can lead to prolonged civil conflict. It is dangerous to the survival of democratic regimes and, in many ways, can be a path to upending or suspending democratic processes altogether. Political violence makes it difficult to establish peace and stability and strengthen citizen confidence in democracy. Despite the substantial literature on political behavior in Africa, we still do not fully understand how varying socio-political and socioeconomic contexts influence citizens' behaviors. Although cross-national studies have examined the influence of political and institutional contextual factors, such as electoral and party systems, on voter turnout, country-specific issues, like ongoing armed conflict or pervasive political violence, are not always included in these analyses. It is necessary to move beyond examining individual characteristics and include country-specific contextual factors that can explain voter behavior and attitudes about democracy within African countries. Individual characteristics alone do not tell the whole story, and by focusing solely on these variables, we miss out on a variety of social and political environmental factors that may shape how citizens behave and think. Based on theories stemming from the literatures on the legacies of civil war, terrorism, electoral violence, and political behavior, I argue that voter turnout, vote choice, and attitudes to democracy are shaped by the social and political contexts in which citizens find themselves. Ongoing armed conflict and pervasive political violence are crucial contextual determinants that shape whether individuals decide to vote, whom they choose to support, and how they feel about democracy and democratic institutions. I also argue that close ties to a political party play a crucial role in conditioning the relationship between violence and democratic citizenship. Using a rich array of data, I produce statistical evidence that shows violent contexts have a negative impact on these behaviors and attitudes. I examine the consequences of political violence and ongoing armed conflict in a country that regularly holds elections. The case of Mozambique, and in particular, its 2014 election, presents an opportunity to understand the impact of armed conflict and political violence on both elections, and the larger multi-party regime. The evidence supports the notion that the ruling party, FRELIMO, lost support because of the violence and that RENAMO was able to bolster its support. However, the identity of the perpetrators of violence, in combination with individual partisan identity influenced how violence shaped Mozambican political behavior. In addition to violent contexts, I find that fear of electoral violence reduces voter turnout, support for the incumbent, and satisfaction with and support for democracy. The effect of fear is particularly salient for individuals who are not attached to a political party. Thus, not only does violence shape how people behave in a given election, it also shapes how they view the larger multi-party regime in which elections take place.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uct/oai:localhost:11427/36722 |
| Date | 23 August 2022 |
| Creators | Sayed, Rami H |
| Contributors | Mattes, Robert, Seegers, Annette |
| Publisher | Faculty of Humanities, Department of Political Studies |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Doctoral Thesis, Doctoral, PhD |
| Format | application/pdf |
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