In a context of growing energy prices and climate change mitigation, the thesis addresses the issues of investments in power generation capacities and in particular nuclear capacities. Given that the Generation IV of nuclear reactors is supposed to be ready in 2040 for industrial deployment, the purpose of the thesis is to study the conditions for electricity investments in France and Europe within this horizon, in order to assess development perspectives for nuclear energy and for potential emergence of Generation IV on the European market. To do so, it is necessary to study the mechanisms at stake in investment choices taking into account all power generating technologies. Economic theory usually bases the choice on long-term economic rationality, which does not allow explain the actual choices observed in European electricity mix. The objective of the research work is thus to identify investment choice drivers and to propose an approach describing the behavior of investors in a more realistic way. A multidisciplinary approach was adopted to explore the question. It combines a historical analysis of drivers evolution according to historical context, a structural analysis of these drivers to identify favorable scenarios for future nuclear reactors, a value creation approach to replicate investors' preferences in those scenarios, and last, a value option approach focusing on nuclear technologies and comparing competitiveness of Generation IV reactors with current reactors. As a result, only strong climate policy combined to government support to nuclear energy could allow industrial development of Generation IV, while high progress of renewables does not lessen the attractiveness of nuclear energy.On a international level, such analysis could be broaden by taking into account the drivers specific to each area of the world, such as highly growing demand in developing countries.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CCSD/oai:tel.archives-ouvertes.fr:tel-01020273 |
| Date | 07 March 2014 |
| Creators | Shoai Tehrani, Bianka |
| Publisher | Ecole Centrale Paris |
| Source Sets | CCSD theses-EN-ligne, France |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | PhD thesis |
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