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Exploring Key Factors in Goal Success : Evaluating Power Play Shots and Pre-shot Events in Ice Hockey Using Random Forest

Discovering the crucial factors that contribute to goal success in sports analytics, this thesis aimsto utilize Random Forest classification to predict the outcome of shots and pre-shot events in powerplay situations. Through three experiments, the study evaluated the use of shots, shots with pre-shotevents, and shots with pre-shot events over sections. The first experiment used only shots, while thesecond experiment focused on shots with pre-shot events, where both compared it with shots over anexpected goal value of 0.08 or higher. The third experiment examined shots with pre-shot events acrossdifferent sections. Our findings demonstrated that the models in our experiments achieved accuracyscores ranging from 78% to 96% and F1 scores between 0% and 24%. Notably, the models in experiment3 demonstrated lower recall scores. The feature importance analysis revealed that pre-shotevents played a significant role in the predictive models of the second and third experiments, indicatingtheir substantial impact on the outcomes. A noteworthy conclusion arising from the discussion isthe recommendation for future research to conduct a more comprehensive exploration into the impactof pre-shot events, given their demonstrated significance in predicting goals. Such an investigation isdeemed necessary and justified.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:hj-61421
Date January 2023
CreatorsDjup, Philip
PublisherJönköping University, JTH, Avdelningen för datavetenskap
Source SetsDiVA Archive at Upsalla University
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeStudent thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text
Formatapplication/pdf
Rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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