In this thesis, three stochastic epidemic models for intervention for emerging diseases are considered. The models are variants of real-time, responsive intervention, based upon observing diagnosed cases and targeting intervention towards individuals they have infected or are likely to have infected, be they housemates or named contacts. These models are: (i) a local tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, wherein intervention (vaccination and/or isolation) is directed towards housemates of diagnosed individuals, (ii) a contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a homogeneously-mixing population, with isolation of traced contacts of a diagnosed individual, (iii) a local tracing and contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, with intervention directed towards housemates of both diagnosed and traced individuals. These are quantified by deriving threshold parameters that determine whether the disease will infect a few individuals or a sizeable proportion of the population, as well as probabilities for such events occurring.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:541094 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Knock, Edward Stuart |
| Publisher | University of Nottingham |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Source | http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12046/ |
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