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Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

Yes / Risk assessment methods have been widely used in various industries, and they play a significant role in improving
the safety performance of systems. However, the outcomes of risk assessment approaches are subject to uncertainty
and ambiguity due to the complexity and variability of system behaviour, scarcity of quantitative data about
different system parameters, and human involvement in the analysis, operation, and decision-making processes. The
implications for improving system safety are slowly being recognised; however, research on uncertainty handling
during both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment procedures is a growing field. This paper presents a review
of the state of the art in this field, focusing on uncertainty handling in fault tree analysis (FTA) based risk
assessment. Theoretical contributions, aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, and integration of both epistemic
and aleatory uncertainty handling in the scientific and technical literature are carefully reviewed. The emphasis is on
highlighting how assessors can handle uncertainty based on the available evidence as an input to FTA.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:BRADFORD/oai:bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:10454/17421
Date18 October 2019
CreatorsMohammad, Y., Kabir, Sohag, Martin, W.
Source SetsBradford Scholars
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeArticle, Accepted manuscript
Rights© 2019 Elsevier. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
Relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2019.09.003

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