A model for real -time control of a multipurpose reservoir under
the conditions of uncertainty is developed. The control model is
formulated as a multistage decision process. It is conceptualized in
the form of two sub -processes. The first level process is a Forecast -
Strategy Process which performs as an open-loop feedback controller.
It is defined by a sequence of forecasts and optimal release strategies
against these forecasts. At each forecast time (time of issuing
the forecast), the optimal release strategy is computed for the time
period equal to the lead time of the forecast, and it remains in execution
until the next forecast time. The second level process, defined
for each forecast time, is a Control Process which for the given forecast
generates the release strategy satisfying the preference criterion
(minimization of expected disutility). This process is formulated as
a truncated Markovian adaptive controller performing on a finite set of
discrete times --the same set which indexes the forecast inflow process. To evaluate the past performance of the control, a set of
measures of effectiveness is proposed. Computational aspects of the
control model are analyzed. Structural properties of the reservoir
control process are explored in the main theorem which assures the
monotonicity of the optimal strategy with respect to one of the state
variables. Also, the properties of the optimal strategy for the case
of a categorical forecast are proven. Next, two suboptimal strategies
are derived: (1) partial open -loop strategy and (2) naive /partial open-loop strategy. Finally, a'discretization procedure which
guarantees convergence of the numerical solution is discussed, and
the computational requirements of the optimal and two suboptimal
strategies are compared.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/610644 |
| Date | 11 1900 |
| Creators | Krzysztofowicz, Roman |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Reports on Natural Resource Systems, No. 31 |
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