From the standpoint of real -time reservoir operation, the
multipurpose control problem may be reduced to a dual purpose problem
of (1) flood control under uncertain inflow and (2) conservation control
(water supply, power generation, low flow augmentation, recreation, etc.)
after the flood has receded.
A preference criterion for real -time flood control under the
conditions of uncertainty is developed in accordance with three
postulates: (1) The input to the control process is a probabilistic
forecast of the inflow hydrograph, (2) The control decisions are based
upon the decision maker's value judgments concerning preferences over
operating attributes, trade -offs between reservóir purposes, and attitude
toward risk. (3) The conservation control is imbedded into the flood
control through the attribute space of the preference criterion allowing
thus for explicit consideration of the trade -offs between reservoir
purposes. The preference criterion is developed within the framework
of utility theory. The value judgments of the decision maker are
quantified in terms of a two -attribute disutility function. It is
argued that minimization of expected disutility is a plausible and well
motivated criterion for multipurpose real -time reservoir control under
uncertainty. A suitable disutility model is developed. The case of a
group decision maker is analyzed in depth. Common group utility models
based on aggregation of individual utility functions and interpersonal utility comparisons are critically reviewed. An alternative approach
based on direct group value judgments is suggested, and a general group
utility model for decision -making in engineering systems is developed.
The disutility assessment procedures are analysed, and response
biases that may be introduced into the decision maker's preference
structure by the use of an inappropriate assessment scheme are identified.
Some principles and novel techniques for assessing disutility functions
are advocated; they are motivated by results of psychological research
in human decision behavior, and are further supported by experimental
evidence. Results of assessment of the reservoir control disutility
function for several single and group decision makers are presented.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/610664 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Krzysztofowicz, Roman |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Technical Reports on Natural Resource Systems, No. 30 |
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