Third party presidential candidates often attract a great deal of attention, but there are multitudes of non-major party candidates at lower levels seeking to influence American politics. The following analysis will examine the contextual and individual-level causes of third party/independent voting in U. S. House and Senate elections. It will assess as well the relative success or failure of non-major party candidates at the district or state level. Chapter 2 will examine the selection of non-major party candidates by individual voters, independent of context via logit models. The influence of voters' evaluations of major party candidates on whether they select a third party/independent U. S. House or Senate candidate will be of interest. The models specify as well other demographic and attitudinal indicators, including the intensity of a respondent's partisanship, to assess their impact on vote choice. Models of vote choice in presidential elections developed by Rosenstone, Behr, and Lazarus (1996) influenced the choice of variables in these models. Their theoretical argument, as well as the one used in the following analysis, employs Hirschmann's (1970) Exit, Voice and Loyalty framework. Voters are loyal to the two-party system if they select a major party candidate, they are able to voice their concerns within that system, and they exit the two-party system if they choose a non-major party candidate. This framework will help examine the behavior of voters and electorates throughout the analysis. The behavior of electorates will be the subject of Chapter 3, where the models will determine which districts or states allocate more votes to third party/independent candidates in U. S. House and Senate elections. These models will also include the recent success of third party candidates for the office in question and the percentage of the presidential vote in the current election allocated to third party/independent candidates in the district or state. This inclusion will facilitate the examination of whether some jurisdictions are more likely to vote for third party candidates because they are less aligned with the parties than are others. Some districts may be more likely to select these kinds of candidates because their overall partisan attachments are not as strong as those of other districts. The models will also include the percentage difference between the vote shares of the major party candidates in the current contest for the office. In accordance with Burden (2007), less third party/independent voting is expected to occur in closer elections. The causes of the availability of third party/independent candidates will also be examined via Heckman (1979) selection models which will include measures of the signature requirements for ballot access and previous vote percentages of third party candidates for the office in question and the presidency. The inclusion of these percentages assesses whether district demographics show possible candidates that third party candidates can get large percentages of the vote in the state/district. These models will include the demographics of the districts to measure whether large concentrations of groups associated with the New Deal alignment, such as senior citizens and union members, deter non-major party candidates from running. The multi-level analysis in Chapter 4 will examine individual-level and macro-level factors that make voters more likely to select third party candidates. Logit-link models will examine these attributes and their impact on voting behavior; logit-link models can take into account variables measured at the district/state level (i.e., the percentage difference between major party vote shares) and the individual level (i.e., respondents' evaluations of major party candidates), and evaluate their influence on individual vote choice. The models will include individual-level variables from Chapter 2, as well as some macro-level indicators. The individual variables in the logit-link models will include: the last third party vote percentage for the office being contested, the current or most recent third party/independent presidential vote percentage, and the percentage difference between the major party candidates in the current election. These variables are expected to send the signal to voters that exiting (Hirschmann 1970) the two-party system is a viable choice in their area. Context is expected to condition whether a voter chooses a candidate who is not aligned with the major parties, independent of individual preferences. In the analysis, a respondent's evaluations of major party candidates are a significant predictor of his/her vote choice in all of the models that use this measure of a respondent's preferences. Also, higher current or most recent third party/independent presidential vote percentages make respondents more likely to select non-major party candidates in all of the logit-link models that use this variable to predict vote choice. Candidate preferences are very strong determinants of individual vote choice, and larger percentages of third party presidential votes in a district/state make respondents much more likely to select third party legislative candidates. / A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. / Fall Semester, 2011. / August 29, 2011. / Congressional Elections, Political Parties, Third Parties, Voting / Includes bibliographical references. / Robert A. Jackson, Professor Directing Dissertation; Lance deHaven Smith, University Representative; Charles Barrilleaux, Committee Member; Jennifer Jerit, Committee Member.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_183039 |
| Contributors | Nelson, James (Political Scientist) (authoraut), Jackson, Robert A. (professor directing dissertation), Smith, Lance deHaven (university representative), Barrilleaux, Charles (committee member), Jerit, Jennifer (committee member), Department of Political Science (degree granting department), Florida State University (degree granting institution) |
| Publisher | Florida State University, Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Language | English, English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, text |
| Format | 1 online resource, computer, application/pdf |
| Rights | This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. |
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