During 1998-2012, climate change and sea level rise (SLR) exhibit two notable features: a slowdown of global surface warming (hiatus) and a rapid SLR in the tropical western Pacific. To quantify their relationship, we analyze the long-term control simulations of 38 climate models. We find a significant and robust correlation between the east-west contrast of dynamic sea level (DSL) in the Pacific and global mean surface temperature (GST) variability on both interannual and decadal time scales. Based on linear regression of the multimodel ensemble mean, the anomalously fast SLR in the western tropical Pacific observed during 1998-2012 indicates suppression of a potential global surface warming of 0.16 degrees 0.06 degrees C. In contrast, the Pacific contributed 0.29 degrees 0.10 degrees C to the significant interannual GST increase in 1997/1998. The Pacific DSL anomalies observed in 2015 suggest that the strong El Nino in 2015/2016 could lead to a 0.21 degrees 0.07 degrees C GST jump.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/621707 |
| Date | 28 August 2016 |
| Creators | Peyser, Cheryl E., Yin, Jianjun, Landerer, Felix W., Cole, Julia E. |
| Contributors | Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Department of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson Arizona USA, Department of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson Arizona USA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory/NASA; California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA, Department of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson Arizona USA |
| Publisher | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Article |
| Rights | ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| Relation | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL069401, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069401/abstract |
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