近年來台灣房屋仲介市場可說發展的相當快速，許多賣方和買方常基於成本的考量，而透過仲介公司來買賣房屋。當然，委託給仲介公司來買賣房屋。其中可能主要因素即著眼於縮短交易的時間或者是提高成交的機率，本研究的整個重心將圍繞在賣方的訂價高低(底價)賣屋動機與房屋的屬性來解釋銷售期間和成交機率的高低，並且本文擬得用搜尋理論和代理人理論來詮釋房地產仲介市場的交易行為。
本研究主要分成六章，第一章為緒論。第二章從搜尋理論的觀點來研究訂價與成交價和銷售期間的關係。我們從賣方決定訂價之後，買方會依據訂價要求折扣率，而賣方也會決定一願意給買方的最小折扣率的角度出發，來建構房屋搜尋模型。由理論得知，賣方折扣率底線愈大，則預期銷售期間愈長；銷售期間愈長，則預期賣方折扣率底線愈低；搜尋成本愈大，則預期賣方折扣率底線愈小；買方要求折扣率分配的平均數愈大，則預期賣方折扣率底線愈大。在實證研究上，利用信義房屋仲介公司所提供的資料(1990－1993)，以銷售期間和訂價相對於成交價的比例為應變數，採用聯立方程式的方式來估計分析。實證結果發現上述幾項論點皆獲得驗證與支持。
第三章模型同時考慮賣方和仲介業的行為，一方面說明賣方搜尋成本和買方所要求折扣率分配對銷售期間和成交機率的影響，另一方面提供未來修正理論模型的基礎。利用存活分析法(survival analysis)來估計銷售期間。一方面，我們要探究影響房屋交易之銷售期間的可能原因為何？另一方面，我們也想了解銷售期間是否具有時間相依性(time dependence)，是否銷售期間越長者，越不易賣出？或越容易賣出？
第四章利用logit模型來估計房屋成交的機率，由於危險模型為純粹之計量模型，而非由理論模型所導出，所以分配之假設將限制其估計模型與理論的關連性，而logit模型則無此問題，因此本研究亦嘗試用logit模型來做估計。
第五章利用代理與搜尋模型來分析賣方和仲介業間的行為關係。不同的仲介收費制度--固定百分比收費(fixed-percentage commission)、定額制(flat－fee)、代銷(consignment sale)，對雙方利益衝突的衝擊為何，是否潛藏著嚴重的道德危險(moral hazard)。透過本篇的分析，可瞭解何以固定百分比收費制度是台灣房屋仲介市場的收費趨勢。最後一章為結論與未來研究方向。 / This paper employs search theory to study the re1ationships between the list price, the transaction price,and marketing duration in the Taiwan real estate market.
Theoretically, buyer uses the a set of criteria together,with the listing price to develop an offer which is based on a (guest) minimurn discount rate guideline form the listing price to determine a price that will be acceptable to the seller. We attempt to describe the impact of pricing strategies (seller's minimum discoun rate) and marketing duration by incorporating the minimurn discount rate in a search model. The derived search model indicates the presence of a positbive retalionship between the minimurn discount rate and marketing duration;an inverse relationship beteween marketing duration and munimurn discount rate; an inverse relationship between searching costs and mininurn discount rate; and a positive relationship between the buyer's average discount rate of distribution function and minimum discount rate.
The study uses data collected during the l990-1993 time period and provided by Hsin Yi Realty Co., with the dependent variables being the marketing duration and the ratio of the listing price to the transaction price. A simultaneous equation is developed and used to analyze the following hypotheses: firstly, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the transaction price, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duraion; secondly, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duraion, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the transaction price; thirdly, the longer the period of consignment, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duration; and the fourth,if the seller is not in a hurry to sell,then the marketing duration becomes longer. Our empirical findings verify and support all the above stated analyses.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/A2002000618 |
| Creators | 李春長 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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