The world shipping freight market for the transportation
of bulk cargo - liquid and dry - is characterised
by the somewhat erratic and extreme fluctuations
exhibited by many of the measures that can be used to
describe the "state" of the market. Such 'measures' include
the spot freight rates - the cost to the shipper of
chartering a unit of shipping capacity 'on the spot' (that
is, not reserving the vessel in advance), - the proportion
of chartered tonnage at any time taken on a period (time)
basis as opposed to a voyage (single) basis, and the rate
at which orders for new vessels reach the shipyards. These
factors are extremely variable, and have exhibited a
similar form of behaviour for a large number of years.
This present thesis describes an attempt to
investigate the behaviour of the freight market (bulk cargo);
the aim of the investigation being to identify the structure
of the market system and to construct a System Dynamics
model which describes the complex relationships in the
market and which can be used to explore questions relating
to present or future market behaviour. The construction of
such a model is described, together with an exhaustive
chapter on the analysis of the model, covering loop-analysis,
the behaviour of the model under various test inputs, and
the senstivity of the model to significant changes in
parameter values.
The final chapter considers the use of the model,
and, in particular, describes its use in an investigation
of the feasibility or desirability of introducing tonnagestabilization
schemes into the market. Such schemes aim
to prevent the freight rates from falling to unacceptably
low values, by implementing a scheme whereby tonnage is
withdrawn from operation and laid-up: the decrease in the
supply of tonnage then has a positive influence on the
freight rates. It is concluded that the problems involved
in designing such schemes preclude the schemes from
implementation.
The appendices cover the various data used in the
determination of market relationships, as well as the
computer listing, in Fortran, of the market model. Also
included in an appendix is a description of the application
of System Dynamics to a hypothetical company. The tcompany
model' allows for the examination of chartering policies
and lay-up policies under a variety of conditions of market
demand.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BRADFORD/oai:bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:10454/4209 |
| Date | January 1979 |
| Creators | Taylor, Anthony Joseph |
| Contributors | Coyle, R.G. |
| Publisher | University of Bradford, Postgraduate School of Studies in Management and Administration |
| Source Sets | Bradford Scholars |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, doctoral, PhD |
| Rights | <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc-nd/3.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/">Creative Commons Licence</a>. |
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