Return to search

A Stochastic Analysis of Flows on Rillitto Creek

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / In order to construct a simulation model for ephemeral streamflow and to examine in depth the problem of the worth of data for that model, measurements of the ephemeral streamflow of Rillitto creek, Tucson, were analyzed for the period 1933-1965. The simulation model was based on several hypotheses: (1) flow durations and their succeeding dry periods (time when no flow is present) are independent; (2) the distribution of the lengths of the dry periods and flows is stationary over a certain period of the year (summer); (3) stationary probability distributions for flow durations and for dry period lengths can be derived. A related problem was how to derive a simulation model for the total amount of flow (in acre-ft) within 1 flow period. Three variables were considered: flow duration (minutes), peak intensity of flow (cu ft/sec) and antecedent dry period-minutes (ADP). Because the assumption of variance constancy does not hold, a multiplicative regression model was used. Using an analysis of variance, which is described in detail, the worth of the 3 kinds of data were examined in relation to total flow. It was concluded that there are at least 5 times during the year when the flow intervals differ significantly, and the ADP is not important in determining flow volume because of the poison flow arrival rate in summer. Events occur at random and are not clustered as in summer, indicating that channel moisture does not differ much between flow events.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/300117
Date23 April 1971
CreatorsBaran, N. E., Kisiel, C. C., Duckstein, L.
ContributorsHydrology & Water Resources, University of Arizona
PublisherArizona-Nevada Academy of Science
Source SetsUniversity of Arizona
Languageen_US
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext, Proceedings
RightsCopyright ©, where appropriate, is held by the author.

Page generated in 0.0025 seconds