Every late autumn and winter, lake-effect snow (LES) disrupts the livelihoods of those who reside in the lee of the Great Lakes. This phenomenon often generates significant localized snowfalls that can cripple one section of a community while the remainder is spared. Detrimental impacts on travel from snowfall rates of 1 inch hour-1 or greater are not uncommon. Storm-total snowfall gradients of 6 to 8 inches mile-1 have also been documented.
Twenty four-hour snowfall measurements taken by National Weather Service (NWS) observers during Lake Ontario LES events were collected. Utilizing a geographic information system, snowfall was interpolated from spotter reports with the kriging method. Then, the area of warning-criteria snowfall was compared to the area of the corresponding county-based LES warning for calculation of percent of false alarm. This warning performance evaluator identified the proportion of a county-based LES warning that received sub-warning-criteria snowfall and was therefore unnecessary.
A total of thirteen events from the 2009-2010 through 2011-2012 LES seasons were analyzed. The average percent of false alarm was approximately 90%. This suggests the NWS should consider smaller warning polygons. Limited-size warnings would enable meteorologists to provide greater specificity regarding the location of anticipated significant snowfall, while simultaneously reducing the number of people who are unnecessarily warned. / Department of Geography
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BSU/oai:cardinalscholar.bsu.edu:123456789/197431 |
| Date | 20 July 2013 |
| Creators | Jaszka, Keith D. |
| Contributors | Call, David A. |
| Source Sets | Ball State University |
| Detected Language | English |
Page generated in 0.0018 seconds