This research explores geospatial patterns in social vulnerability to flooding and experimentally examines the effect of coverage maximums on flood insurance demand. In the first chapter, I analyze census data for the City of Calgary from 1991-2016 to identify trends in social vulnerability based on flood hazard level. Using a quasi-experimental design, I estimate the short-term changes in social vulnerability attributable to the 2013 Calgary flood. The results show that the Calgary flood was associated with a 2.6% increase in postsecondary education, a 1.4% decrease in the immigrant population, a 1.7% decrease in the visible minority population, a $7,100 increase in median family income, 2.8% decrease in home ownership, 3.7% increase in housing construction and 2.2% increase in recent movers. Together, these findings suggest that the highest flood hazard areas in Calgary are generally comprised of lower vulnerability populations; absolute loss potential from floods is getting higher over time due to higher property wealth in high flood hazard areas; and flooding events are associated with a decline in social vulnerability over the short-term.
In the second chapter, I examine flood insurance coverage preferences through the use of a hypothetical choice experiment. The experiment was designed to examine the effect of dwelling value and coverage limit on the probability of flood insurance purchase, while holding the probability of flooding and insurance price constant. Controlling for income, the results indicate that amount of coverage is negatively related to flood insurance demand, however, for people in high-value dwellings the opposite is observed. This may suggest an approach to flood insurance as an investment into high-value properties as a financial asset, but the trade-off in higher yearly premiums may not seem worth the investment for lower-valued dwellings. This research shows an inconsistent demand for flood insurance, dependent on dwelling value and independent of income. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc) / In this research I analyze the population characteristics of the City of Calgary geographically in order to determine if more vulnerable populations are exposed to the hazard of flooding. I also look at the before-and-after flood population characteristics of the flooded and non-flooded areas to see if flooding makes communities more or less vulnerable following an event. My aim is to provide context for the flooding hazard in Calgary and see if a flood changes the population vulnerability of the affected areas afterwards.
I also conduct a choice experiment where I provide participants with a devised flood insurance scenario. I keep some of the variables constant, such as flood probability and insurance price, but change the amount of coverage and dwelling value randomly to see if they influence the likelihood that people buy insurance. The goal of this is to understand how insurance maximums can influence consumer demand.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:mcmaster.ca/oai:macsphere.mcmaster.ca:11375/24962 |
| Date | January 2019 |
| Creators | Darlington, J. Connor |
| Contributors | Yiannakoulias, Niko, Earth and Environmental Sciences |
| Source Sets | McMaster University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
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