In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions about BSE held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf operators are evaluated. Since the BSE outbreak in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf operators may have had various different reactions to BSE. These reactions may be related to their different levels of risk perception about BSE, risk perceptions which may have evolved over time and may be affected by BSE media information. These reactions may also be the result of factors other than BSE. An analysis of behavioural models of consumers and cow-calf producers is required to reveal the impacts of both BSE risk perceptions and non-BSE related factors.
In this study, the risk perceptions about BSE are specified applying a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) and a Prospective Reference Theory (PRT), and evaluated through market observed behaviour of Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers, an approach which is different than the traditional stated preference approach to eliciting risk perception measures. Parametric and non-parametric structural break tests associated with the BSE outbreak (May 2003) are employed to evaluate changes in consumers or cow-calf operators behaviour.
The results show that SARF is supported by both panel data and time series data on Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers, suggesting that their risk perceptions about BSE are amplified by both the quantity and quality of BSE information. Risk perceptions about BSE have led to a decrease in beef demand and an increase in slaughter cow supply, which in turn, exacerbated losses in Canadian beef sector.
Structural break tests related to the BSE outbreak in May 2003 confirm changes in both consumers and cow-calf producers behaviour. Consumers with different profiles had different levels of risk perceptions about BSE and different demand and substitution elasticities. Cow-calf producers from different regions also had different levels of risk perceptions about BSE and different supply elasticities, suggesting the need for more analysis of market segmentation. Simulation analyses over the North American beef sector further confirmed the impact of BSE risk perceptions of Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers in the North American beef and live cattle market. / Agricultural and Resource Economics
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:AEU.10048/1467 |
| Date | 11 1900 |
| Creators | Yang, Jun |
| Contributors | Ellen Goddard, Rural Economy, James Rude, Rural Economy, Scott Jeffrey, Rural Economy, Erasmus Okine, Agricultural, Food & Nutritional Science, John Cranfield, Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 5946911 bytes, application/pdf |
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