The aim of this study is to micro-forecast kinship structure from 2017 to the first of January 2041 by using Statistic Sweden’s forecasted mortality rates. The subject of study is the Iranian population of the birth cohort 1965-1975 who have lived in Sweden 2017 and their kin and compare it with a Swedish background sample. The data has been taken from the Swedish population registry and the mortality rates have been taken from Statistic Sweden to forecast the future population. The results show that there is a difference between the Iranian population and the Swedish background sample in regards to availability of kinship in Sweden. The kinship availability persists from ever registered in the administrative registry to the end of the microsimulation in the year 2041. Furthermore, the differences in the most vulnerable group who does not have any partner, children or siblings to rely on are larger in the Iranian population. This is the first study to count kinship ties of a migrant group and compare it with a Swedish reference sample in the future by combining microsimulation modelling and the Swedish population registry. Keywords microsimulation, forecast, kinship, immigrants, Iranians, Sweden
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:su-159218 |
| Date | January 2018 |
| Creators | Immonen Hagley, Marcus |
| Publisher | Stockholms universitet, Sociologiska institutionen |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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